For a countable complete superstable theory TT, Tanović (2013) proved that if U(T)≥ωωU(T)\ge\omega^\omega and the generic type of every infinite simple group definable in TeqT^{eq} of UU-rank below ωω\omega^\omega is eventually strongly non-isolated (ESN), then TT has 2ℵ02^{\aleph_0} countable models. The paper asks whether the generic type of every simple superstable group is at least eventually non-isolated (its Question 1) and conjectures the strong ESN property for generics of simple superstable groups of UU-rank ωα+1⋅n\omega^{\alpha+1}\cdot n (its Conjecture 2). Both remain open: the August 2025 survey by Pillay and Tanović re-poses Question 1 verbatim as an open problem, and the unconditional rank-threshold conjecture U(T)≥ωω⇒I(T,ℵ0)=2ℵ0U(T)\ge\omega^\omega\Rightarrow I(T,\aleph_0)=2^{\aleph_0} (Tanović 2007) is still proved only for trivial and one-based theories. This record asks for a determination of the isolation status of generics of simple superstable groups; an affirmative answer to the strong form below ωω\omega^\omega would make the threshold theorem unconditional via Theorem 1, yielding the statement that every superstable theory with few countable models has Lascar rank strictly below ωω\omega^\omega.

Background

For a complete first-order theory TT in a countable language, I(T,ℵ0)I(T,\aleph_0) denotes the number of countable models of TT up to isomorphism; it is always at most 2ℵ02^{\aleph_0}. Vaught's conjecture predicts that I(T,ℵ0)I(T,\aleph_0) is either countable or 2ℵ02^{\aleph_0}, and theories with I(T,ℵ0)<2ℵ0I(T,\aleph_0)<2^{\aleph_0} are said to have few countable models. The conjecture is confirmed for ω\omega-stable theories (Shelah–Harrington–Makkai 1984) and for superstable theories of finite UU-rank (Buechler 2008), but remains open for superstable theories in general.

A theory is stable if over every parameter set there are only as many complete types as the cardinality of that set (informally: the theory has few types), and superstable if a stronger iteration of this condition holds; superstability sits one step below ω\omega-stability in the stability hierarchy. In a superstable theory, complete types carry the Lascar rank U(p)U(p), an ordinal-valued rank measuring the depth of forking — forking being the stability-theoretic notion of dependence between a type and a parameter set. U(T)U(T) is the supremum of U(p)U(p) over all complete types; ordinals are compared via Cantor normal form, and ωω\omega^\omega is the first limit of the monomials ωn\omega^n. Throughout one works in TeqT^{eq}, the canonical expansion of TT by imaginary sorts (quotients by definable equivalence relations), so that sets and groups interpretable in TT become definable.

A stable group is a group definable, possibly with parameters, in a stable theory. A generic type of a stable group GG is a complete type over the group whose finitely many left translates cover GG; in a connected stable group the generic is unique up to translation, and the UU-rank of GG is by definition the UU-rank of its generic type. A simple group is a group with no nontrivial proper normal subgroups; the groups considered here are infinite simple groups definable in TeqT^{eq}.

A type p∈S(A)p\in S(A) (a complete type over the finite or small parameter set AA) is isolated if a single formula generates it. The following isolation notions drive the countable-models theory: pp is eventually non-isolated (eni) if some nonforking extension of pp over a finite set B⊇AB\supseteq A is non-isolated; pp is strongly non-isolated if, for every finite BB and every nn, the types over ABAB almost orthogonal to pp are dense in Sn(AB)S_n(AB) (almost orthogonal meaning that any realization of one is forking-independent of any realization of the other over ABAB); and pp is eventually strongly non-isolated (ESN) if some nonforking extension of pp over a finite set is strongly non-isolated. ESN implies eni, and the two notions coincide for types of UU-rank 1. A strongly regular type — a non-algebraic type whose distinct realizations are pairwise dependent, a higher-rank analogue of a strongly minimal type — that is not eni is called NENI. Tanović (2007) proved a dichotomy: a type is ESN if and only if it is orthogonal to every NENI type whose domain is a finite extension of its own domain; and that the existence of an infinite family of regular ESN types over finite domains with UU-ranks ωn\omega^n forces I(T,ℵ0)=2ℵ0I(T,\aleph_0)=2^{\aleph_0}.

Tanović (2007) conjectured that U(T)≥ωωU(T)\ge\omega^\omega implies I(T,ℵ0)=2ℵ0I(T,\aleph_0)=2^{\aleph_0} — equivalently, that a superstable theory with few countable models has U(T)<ωωU(T)<\omega^\omega — and proved it for trivial theories and for one-based theories (one-basedness is a global local-modularity condition; complete theories of modules over a fixed ring are one-based). Low and Pillay (1992) had shown that a superstable, non-ω\omega-stable theory with few countable models must contain a definable group with locally modular regular generic types; in particular, a superstable theory with no infinite definable groups satisfies Vaught's conjecture. Definable groups are therefore the locus of the remaining difficulty.

The 2013 paper analyzes geometrically how the required ESN families can fail to exist. If they do fail, then — via internally isolated types, their Grassmannian types p(n)p^{(n)} (types of names of nn-dimensional subspaces of the pregeometry induced on the locus of a regular type pp), and binding groups (type-definable automorphism groups of the locus of a type) — a hypothetical NENI type of UU-rank ωα+1\omega^{\alpha+1} produces a type-definable group acting transitively, indeed 2-transitively, whose α\alpha-connected component (a standard connected-component construction for superstable groups) has trivial center; classical stable-group theory then yields a simple, qq-connected group or a qq-connected field of UU-rank about ωα\omega^\alpha. The field case is closed inside the paper: the generic type of a superstable field of UU-rank below ωω\omega^\omega is ESN, by a vector-space dimension-counting argument over definable subfields. For simple groups the analogous statement is unknown beyond finite rank: a simple group of finite UU-rank is ℵ1\aleph_1-categorical but not ℵ0\aleph_0-categorical (a classical fact recalled in the paper), which makes its generic type ENI and, at rank 1, ESN; at infinite rank no structure theory of comparable strength is known. Theorem 1 of the paper states: if TT is superstable, U(T)≥ωωU(T)\ge\omega^\omega, and the generic type of every simple group definable in TeqT^{eq} of UU-rank smaller than ωω\omega^\omega is ESN, then I(T,ℵ0)=2ℵ0I(T,\aleph_0)=2^{\aleph_0}. The paper asks its Question 1 (is every such generic at least eventually non-isolated?) and poses Conjecture 2 (the generic of a simple superstable group of UU-rank ωα+1⋅n\omega^{\alpha+1}\cdot n is ESN). The question was re-posed verbatim as an open problem (Problem 1) in the August 2025 survey by Pillay and Tanović, which notes that the UU-rank <ωω<\omega^\omega bound for theories with few countable models would follow without any one-basedness assumption given an affirmative answer.

Problem Statement

Let TT be a complete, superstable theory in a countable language, having infinite models, and work in TeqT^{eq}. The problem, posed in the source paper, has a core question and a strong refinement. The two sub-questions have different domains — (1) concerns every infinite simple group definable in TeqT^{eq}, whereas (2) is restricted to groups of monomial UU-rank ωα+1⋅n\omega^{\alpha+1}\cdot n — so neither sub-question implies the other. An affirmative answer to the strong form for groups of UU-rank below ωω\omega^\omega supplies exactly the missing hypothesis of the paper's Theorem 1:

(1) Question 1 (weak form). Is the generic type of every infinite simple group definable in TeqT^{eq} eventually non-isolated — that is, does some nonforking extension of the generic type over a finite parameter set fail to be isolated?

(2) Conjecture 2 (strong form). Is the generic type of every simple superstable group of UU-rank ωα+1⋅n\omega^{\alpha+1}\cdot n (a single monomial term of Cantor normal form) eventually strongly non-isolated (ESN)?

An affirmative answer to (2) for groups of UU-rank below ωω\omega^\omega supplies exactly the instances of the hypothesis of Theorem 1 of the source paper that its proof consumes — the proof applies the hypothesis only to the simple, qq-connected groups of monomial UU-rank ωα+1⋅m\omega^{\alpha+1}\cdot m produced by its Proposition 3.4, the finite-rank instances being the case the paper itself recalls as classically settled — and would thereby immediately yield the unconditional rank-threshold statement: every countable complete superstable theory with U(T)≥ωωU(T)\ge\omega^\omega has I(T,ℵ0)=2ℵ0I(T,\aleph_0)=2^{\aleph_0} — equivalently, every superstable theory with fewer than 2ℵ02^{\aleph_0} countable models has U(T)<ωωU(T)<\omega^\omega (the conjecture from Tanović's 2007 paper, currently established only for trivial and one-based theories).

Determine the truth of (1) and (2). An affirmative answer to (2) for groups of UU-rank below ωω\omega^\omega would make the threshold theorem unconditional via Theorem 1.

References

  1. Predrag Tanović, "Simple groups and the number of countable models", Archive for Mathematical Logic 52 (2013) 779–791. DOI: 10.1007/s00153-013-0343-x. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00153-013-0343-x (preprint arXiv:1304.7099, https://arxiv.org/abs/1304.7099)
  2. Predrag Tanović, "Non-isolated types in stable theories", Annals of Pure and Applied Logic 145 (2007) 1–15. DOI: 10.1016/j.apal.2006.05.014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apal.2006.05.014
  3. Anand Pillay and Predrag Tanović, "The number of countable models of first-order theories" (2025), expository survey submitted to the Journal of Open Mathematical Problems. arXiv:2508.06854. https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.06854
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  6. S. Shelah, L. Harrington and M. Makkai, "A proof of Vaught's conjecture for ω-stable theories", Israel Journal of Mathematics 49 (1984) 259–280. DOI: 10.1007/BF02760651. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02760651
  7. Michael C. Laskowski and Danielle S. Ulrich, "Equivalents of NOTOP", Journal of Symbolic Logic, published online 2025, pp. 1–33. DOI: 10.1017/jsl.2025.10135. https://doi.org/10.1017/jsl.2025.10135 (preprint arXiv:2505.00844, https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.00844)
  8. Dejan Ilić, Slavko Moconja and Predrag Tanović, "Groups with finitely many countable models", Publications de l'Institut Mathématique 97 (2015) 33–41. DOI: 10.2298/PIM140318001I. https://doi.org/10.2298/PIM140318001I