Let (M,g)(M,g) be a smooth compact Riemannian manifold and let I(x)⊂TxMI(x)\subset T_xM denote its injectivity domain at xx, the open star-shaped set of tangent vectors whose geodesics minimize up to time one. Villani conjectured that the Ma–Trudinger–Wang (MTW) sign condition alone — a fourth-order positivity condition on the squared-distance cost, necessary for continuity of optimal transport maps — forces all injectivity domains of MM to be convex, with no nonfocality assumption. Figalli–Gallouët–Rifford (SIAM J. Math. Anal. 2015) proved the conjecture under the additional hypothesis that the manifold is nonfocal (every tangent cut velocity is itself nonfocal) and located the entire remaining difficulty at purely focal velocities, where the exponential map degenerates, the extended MTW tensor can change sign, and the known estimates break down. The conjecture remains open: prove or refute that (MTW) implies convexity of all injectivity domains without nonfocality.

Background

Optimal transport and regularity. Let (M,g)(M,g) be a smooth compact connected Riemannian manifold with geodesic distance dd, and let c(x,y)=d(x,y)2/2c(x,y)=d(x,y)^2/2 be the quadratic geodesic cost. The Monge optimal transport problem asks, for two probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nu on MM that are absolutely continuous with respect to the volume measure with densities bounded above and below, for a measurable map T:M→MT:M\to M pushing μ\mu forward to ν\nu (i.e. ν(A)=μ(T−1(A))\nu(A)=\mu(T^{-1}(A)) for every measurable AA) and minimizing ∫Mc(x,T(x)) dμ(x)\int_M c(x,T(x))\,d\mu(x). Such a map exists and is unique up to sets of μ\mu-measure zero, and the basic regularity question is whether TT is continuous. Injectivity domains and the cut locus. For x∈Mx\in M, the injectivity domain I(x)⊂TxMI(x)\subset T_xM is the open star-shaped set of tangent vectors vv such that the geodesic t↦exp⁡x(tv)t\mapsto\exp_x(tv) is the unique minimizing geodesic from xx to exp⁡x(v)\exp_x(v) on [0,1][0,1]; here exp⁡x\exp_x is the exponential map, sending a tangent vector to the point reached by the geodesic it generates. The boundary of I(x)I(x) is the tangent cut locus TCL(x)\mathrm{TCL}(x), and its image under exp⁡x\exp_x is the cut locus of xx, the classical object recording where geodesics from xx stop minimizing. On the unit tangent bundle UMUM (the bundle of tangent vectors of norm one), the tangent cut time tcut(x,v)t_{\mathrm{cut}}(x,v) records the first time at which the geodesic from xx with initial unit velocity vv stops being minimizing, so I(x)={t v : v∈UxM, 0≤t<tcut(x,v)}I(x)=\{t\,v\,:\,v\in U_xM,\ 0\le t<t_{\mathrm{cut}}(x,v)\}. The MTW tensor. Studying the regularity of the potential function of the transport (a solution of a Monge–Ampère type partial differential equation), Ma, Trudinger and Wang (2005) introduced a fourth-order curvature-type tensor associated with the cost: for x∈Mx\in M, v∈I(x)v\in I(x) and tangent vectors ξ,η∈TxM\xi,\eta\in T_xM, the quantity S(x,v)(ξ,η)S_{(x,v)}(\xi,\eta) is built from the mixed fourth derivatives of cc along the pair of geodesic variations t↦exp⁡x(tξ)t\mapsto\exp_x(t\xi) and s↦exp⁡x(v+sη)s\mapsto\exp_x(v+s\eta). The (MTW) sign condition requires S(x,v)(ξ,η) ≥ 0S_{(x,v)}(\xi,\eta)\ \ge\ 0 whenever x∈Mx\in M, v∈I(x)v\in I(x) and ⟨ξ,η⟩x=0\langle\xi,\eta\rangle_x=0. Loeper (2009) observed that for unit orthogonal ξ,η\xi,\eta the value S(x,0)(ξ,η)S_{(x,0)}(\xi,\eta) equals the sectional curvature of the plane spanned by ξ\xi and η\eta; hence (MTW) implies nonnegative sectional curvature, so manifolds satisfying it are quite rigid. Loeper also proved that (MTW) is necessary for regularity: if it fails, there are smooth densities μ,ν\mu,\nu for which the optimal map is discontinuous. The transport continuity property (TCP) is said to hold if the optimal map is continuous for every admissible pair μ,ν\mu,\nu. Figalli–Rifford–Villani (2011) proved that TCP implies both (MTW) and convexity of all injectivity domains, that strict versions of the two conditions imply TCP, and that in dimension two TCP is equivalent to (MTW) together with convexity of injectivity domains. Convexity of injectivity domains is thus a necessary condition for transport regularity and, modulo strictness and dimension, a sufficient one; merging the two conditions into one is exactly Villani's conjecture. Focal points and nonfocality. A tangent vector v∈TxMv\in T_xM is focal (also called conjugate) if the differential of the exponential map exp⁡x\exp_x degenerates at tvtv for some t∈[0,1]t\in[0,1]; the nonfocal domain NF(x)\mathrm{NF}(x) collects the vv with no such degeneracy, and MM is nonfocal if for every xx the tangent cut locus TCL(x)\mathrm{TCL}(x) is contained in NF(x)\mathrm{NF}(x), i.e. every tangent cut velocity is itself nonfocal. Loeper–Villani (2010) proved that on a nonfocal manifold satisfying the strict inequality S(x,v)(ξ,η)≥K∣ξ∣x2∣η∣x2S_{(x,v)}(\xi,\eta)\ge K|\xi|_x^2|\eta|_x^2 for some K>0K>0, all injectivity domains are uniformly convex (convex with a uniform quantitative bound on their boundaries). Figalli–Gallouët–Rifford (2015) dropped the strictness: on a nonfocal manifold, (MTW) alone implies convexity of all injectivity domains (Theorem 1.6 there). The proof bootstraps local convexity from radial semi-convexity estimates (semi-convexity meaning convex up to the addition of a fixed quadratic), using the extended MTW tensor — the same tensor evaluated for velocities vv ranging beyond I(x)I(x), a device introduced by Figalli–Rifford (2009) in their study of small deformations of the round sphere. Theorem 4.1 of the 2015 paper isolates what is needed in general, without nonfocality: if for every radius rr one can construct a compact set Z⊂TMZ\subset TM with radial fibers, containing I(x)∩Bx(r+β)I(x)\cap B_x(r+\beta) and contained in the closure of NF(x)\mathrm{NF}(x), on which (i) the extended tensor satisfies a one-sided bound S≥−C∣⟨ξ,η⟩x∣∣ξ∣x∣η∣x−D ρx(v,I(x)) ∣ξ∣x2∣η∣x2S\ge -C|\langle\xi,\eta\rangle_x||\xi|_x|\eta|_x-D\,\rho_x(v,I(x))\,|\xi|_x^2|\eta|_x^2, where ρx(v,I(x))\rho_x(v,I(x)) is the distance from vv to I(x)I(x), together with (ii) a quantitative focal-distance bound, and which is (iii) stable under convex combinations, then all injectivity domains are convex. The remaining obstruction. The construction of such sets ZZ fails precisely at purely focal velocities. For v∈TCL(x)v\in\mathrm{TCL}(x) set δ(v)=max⁡{∣v−w∣x : w∈TCL(x), exp⁡xw=exp⁡xv}\delta(v)=\max\{|v-w|_x\,:\,w\in\mathrm{TCL}(x),\ \exp_x w=\exp_x v\}; a cut vector vv is purely focal when δ(v)=0\delta(v)=0, meaning the cut phenomenon at exp⁡xv\exp_x v is not caused by the meeting of several minimizing geodesics but by a focal degeneracy of the exponential map itself, and cut vectors with small δ(v)\delta(v) are near such points. The authors state the two outstanding tasks: giving a sign to the extended MTW tensor near purely focal points, where it can change sign, and isolating those points; both require understanding the distribution of purely focal points and the behavior of the tensor near them, which is not currently available. The same degeneracy governs the regularity of the cut time: the 2015 paper proves that tcutt_{\mathrm{cut}} is Lipschitz continuous in geodesic directions (in the line of work of Itoh–Tanaka, Li–Nirenberg and Castelpietra–Rifford on the distance function to the cut locus), globally on UMUM under the condition δ(TM)>0\delta(TM)>0 (a condition that rules out purely focal velocities but is weaker than nonfocality), and in full generality in dimension two; whether tcutt_{\mathrm{cut}} is Lipschitz on UMUM in every dimension is left open there. Villani's conjecture — that (MTW) alone implies convexity of all injectivity domains, without any nonfocality — remains the open target. Every manifold on which (MTW) is known to hold — the round spheres and their small C4C^4 deformations treated by Figalli–Rifford (2009) and Figalli–Rifford–Villani (2012), with ellipsoids of revolution analyzed separately by Bonnard–Caillau–Rifford — is treated in the literature together with nonfocality or has convexity verified directly, so the conjecture is untested by the known examples.

Problem Statement

Villani's conjecture (formulated by Villani in 2011 and stated as an open problem by Figalli–Gallouët–Rifford in 2015): Let (M,g)(M,g) be a smooth compact Riemannian manifold satisfying the (MTW) sign condition, S(x,v)(ξ,η) ≥ 0for all x∈M, v∈I(x), ξ,η∈TxM with ⟨ξ,η⟩x=0.S_{(x,v)}(\xi,\eta)\ \ge\ 0\quad\text{for all }x\in M,\ v\in I(x),\ \xi,\eta\in T_xM\text{ with }\langle\xi,\eta\rangle_x=0. Then all injectivity domains of MM are convex: for every x∈Mx\in M the set I(x)⊂TxMI(x)\subset T_xM — where I(x)I(x) is the injectivity domain at xx, the open star-shaped set of tangent vectors vv such that the geodesic t↦exp⁡x(tv)t\mapsto\exp_x(tv) is the unique minimizing geodesic from xx to exp⁡x(v)\exp_x(v) on [0,1][0,1] — is convex. The problem is to settle this conjecture: either prove it in full generality — with no nonfocality hypothesis, no quantitative strengthening of (MTW), and no dimension, smoothness, analyticity, or symmetry restriction on the manifold, and no weakening of the conclusion (local or approximate convexity does not substitute) — or refute it by exhibiting a smooth compact Riemannian manifold satisfying (MTW) with a nonconvex injectivity domain, i.e. a point x∈Mx\in M, velocities v0,v1∈I(x)v_0,v_1\in I(x), and t∈(0,1)t\in(0,1) with (1−t)v0+t v1∉I(x)(1-t)v_0+t\,v_1\notin I(x). Any complete proof, or any valid counterexample, settles the problem.

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